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World Review
Democracy is not a popularity contest. Yet. PDF Print
Written by Conor Dempsey   

The arachaic use of the electoral college in US politics has to be replaced by a popular vote for real democracy, argues Conor Dempsey.

As the Democrats attempt to pass a bill to reform healthcare the spotlight is fixed on the Senate; the second house of congress is blocking a health bill backed by a majority in both houses, as well as by the President. In that house the Democrats have 57 members out of 100 and the Republicans have 41, with 2 Independents. The fact that a party with a majority of 16% is not able to pass an important bill is just one symptom of the malfunctioning United States democracy. Equally indicative of rot in the system is the grossly unfair way in which Presidents are elected, as well as a new ruling allowing corporations to fund political campaigns to any degree they wish.
The Senate rule which allows a mere 41 senators to block any bill backed by the other 59 is the filibuster. A filibuster used to be a rare event witnessed on occasion as a last ditch effort to prevent a law, which somebody had particularly strong feelings about, being passed. It used to involve an unusually long speech designed to cease the debate and stop the functioning of the house; if a filibuster went on long enough it would often result in the abandonment of a bill.
The record for the longest filibuster ever conducted in the US Senate was set by Strom Thurmond (R), who held the floor for 24 hours and 18 minutes in an unsuccessful attempt to derail the 1957 Civil Rights Bill. This sort of display of determination is probably in keeping with the intentions of the the framers of the Constitution; they hoped that the Senate would act as a cooling chamber for particularly sensitive bills. The idea was that the Senate would slow down the passage of a bill and that broader concensus would have to be reached in order to pass bills of special import. The bill did pass in the end, and was followed up with a stronger Civil Rights Bill in 1965. The southern segregationists had their last show of determination, as was their right, but democracy won in the end. Nowadays Sen. Thurmond would have a much easier task ahead of him for reasons I will explain.
One hundred years ago, in order to minimise the potentially unlimited power of the filibuster, the Senate decided to introduce the rule of cloture. This put an end to the right on which the filibuster rested, namely the right to unlimited debate. Now, if two-thirds of voting Senators voted in favor, cloture could be called to a debate and a filibuster ended. In 1975 the Senate made a further two changes; it was these changes that took the filibuster beyond the realm of cooling and into the domain of the undemocratic. It was decided that a filibuster could now be announced by 41 senators without any need to actually hold the floor; the filibuster became a simple action with no physical effort involved. It was also decided that three-fifths of the Senate membership (60 Senators) would have to vote for cloture.
Since then there has been an exponential rise in the use of the filibuster. Its ease of use has meant it has become routine. Only 41 Senators are needed to block any bill; the 41 Senators representing the smallest states account for 11% of the population. The 60 Senators representing the 30 smallest states account for 24% of the population.
Senators representing a mere 11% of the population are in theory able to block any bill voted for by senators representing the remaining 89%. Senators representing only 24% of the population can pass any bill. Surely even the most staunch supporters of the sacrosanct document that is the US Constitution can recognise that this is not democratic?
Another sign that US democracy is malfunctioning is the current state of their electoral system. In the US presidential election there is a significant risk of a presidential candidate losing an election despite having had a clear majority in the popular vote. This actually happened in 2000 when Gore had 500,000 votes more than Bush, but because of the archaic electoral college system Bush won the election. The problems with this system are many, and the arguments of its defenders are void. The electoral college is defended as a part of the American political culture, as part of the Constitution, intrinsic to the way politics in the US is supposed to operate. This sort of argument is usually presented as stemming from pride in the Constitution and faith in the wisdom of the framers. There is not, however, any mention of the electoral college in the Constitution.
As Hendrick Hertzberg noted in an essay for The New Yorker, “America has been an inspiration to people struggling for democracy. But, when it comes to actually designing the machinery, the American model has no takers - not among successful democracies at any rate. (The Philippines, Liberia, and some Latin-American countries, which have copied us, are not good advertisements)”.
There is hope that American presidential elections will begin to look more like those in other democratic countries come 2012. This is thanks to a pragmatic new program called the NPV, or National Popular Vote plan. The idea is this: states sign up to an agreement, to be enshrined in their state legislation, stating that once enough states have come on board to account for 270 electoral college votes – the number required to elect a president – then the said states will cast all their votes to whichever candidate wins a majority of the national popular vote. So far about one-fifth of the required 270 votes have been accounted for. This system introduces a popular vote without having to amend the constitution, which is an ideal but unrealistic option.
Unfortunately a recent Supreme Court ruling made a historic change to the law that deals fresh damage to the American political system. The court ruled by a divided 5-4 vote that corporations are now free to use treasury funds to back any political candidate they wish. This decision reverses the ruling of Austin vs. Michigan Chamber of Commerce, 1990. The vote rests on the interpretation of the word “person” in the 14th Amendment. The interpretation now includes corporations in some essential ways – the most important being that as far as persons have the right to aid political candidates privately under the 1st Amendment, corporations are now persons. This is an unfortunate decision for a system already plagued by the influence of money.
A question that perhaps the rest of the democratic world ought to ask: is America in a legitimate position to advance the cause of democracy worldwide? Of course, flawed democracy is usually better than no democracy, but as the leading nation of the world America ought to be an example of democracy at its best. It is only fuel for the enemies of democracy that the chief democratic crusaders seem a little shaky in their convictions.
Suppose the US did elect its president based on the percentage of the national popular vote that he received. Al Gore would have been the president from 2000 until 2004, at least. The “war on terror” would have been quite different. There is little doubt that Gore would have invaded Afghanistan; he would have been right to, or so most commentators agreed then and still agree now. He would not, though, have been so quick to believe spook stories about weapons of mass destruction hidden in Iraq; as the Iraq war reaches its seventh anniversary we should reflect on the profound way a broken American democracy can affect the rest of the world.

 
Death and destruction in Nigeria PDF Print
Written by Manus Lenihan   

After hundreds were slaughtered there in January, army presence was stepped up heavily in Jos, the capital city of Plateau State, in north-central Nigeria. The security forces, however, were nowhere near the outlying village cluster of Dagan-Na-Hauwa when, over four long hours, hundreds were hacked to death on the morning of Sunday, 7th March. Jos has been the scene of mass violence in 2001, 2008, and now twice this year. The multi-ethnic former colonial mining city lies on Nigeria’s roughly Northern-Southern, Muslim-Christian divide, and the sporadic killings have been put down to ongoing feuds between the heavily segregated religious communities of Jos. The facts, however, do not fit so simple an explanation, and these periodic murderous riots and rampages are in fact a disturbing manifestation of some of Nigeria’s deepest-rooted problems, both cultural and systemic.
On 17th January, protests at the building of a mosque in a Christian area of Jos sparked off four days’ intense fighting. Mobs set aflame mosques, churches and over a thousand houses, shops and vehicles. Of the 492 who were burned, hacked or shot to death, 364 were Muslims. Among them were all 150 inhabitants of one Muslim village. Less than two months later, at 4am on 7th March, machete-wielding gangs descended on the Christian and Animist Berom community of Dagan-Na-Hauwa. They set fire to homes, used fishnets and animal traps to catch fleeing villagers and killed between 100 and 500 people. This recent slaughter has been seen as a reprisal by Muslim Hausa-Fulani herdsmen for January’s violence, but the tribe’s expansionist agenda and aggressive protection of their grazing rights have been mentioned as possible motivations. In reality, though, these two motivations are examples of the same kind of inter-ethnic power struggles which have fuelled violence in the area, and indeed throughout the country, for decades.
Tribal and village loyalties come before nationality for most Nigerians - a policeman might conspicuously fail to notice crimes committed by a kinsman, or a civil servant might promote someone from his own village over someone more qualified. While this is in no way true in most cases, it has generally been a problem in Nigeria that collective, community-based thought and action is invested not in Federal or even State government, but in tribe and village. At best, this is nothing more sinister than friendly parochial-style rivalry, but at worst it manifests itself in mass murder. Nigerian nationhood is tenuous; “Nigeria” as a word and as an entity being a more or less arbitrary creation of British imperial officials. The many groups living in this vast, rich swathe of land were ruled under imperialism as one, fought for independence as one, and have been ruled as one by military governments or a tiny political élite ever since. A complete lack of common language, identity, religion or perceived interests have stunted any effort to make a united nation of this geographical expression and have fuelled the kind of violence that has plagued Jos.
In such a context we can understand, when we consider that the Muslim Hausa-Fulani are Nigeria’s largest ethnic group, making up 30% of the population, why accusations of complicity in the recent massacres have been directed at people in high public offices. Plateau State’s governor, Jonah Jong, a Christian, was informed of the likelihood of violence as early as 9am on Saturday 6th. He passed word on to security chiefs, who failed to respond until 2.30pm on Sunday 7th - when the murderers had long since escaped after a massacre lasting four hours. The National Security Advisor has been replaced, security forces are clamping down heavily on the area and dozens of arrests and charges have been made, but more boots on the ground in and around Jos will not uproot the causes of the violence.
Protests of crowds of women in Jos and Lagos on 12th March illustrated the ethnically divided nature of Nigerian politics, as they demanded that the Northern Muslim oligarchy end their encouragement of the aggressive expansion of the Hausa-Fulani around Jos. The Hausa-Fulani are seen as “settlers” and “invaders” in Jos, despite a presence going back decades. However, they have done little to encourage integration, clustering away from the locals while expanding, often violently, outside this zone. Like the Igbo and the Yoruba, Nigeria’s other major tribes, they speak a language unintelligible to others. With rapid urbanisation as the 20th century drew to a close, such strong cultural differences became a catalyst for violence in many Nigerian cities, and today in Jos the Hausa-Fulani are expanding their power. Because “settlers” are treated as effective second-class citizens by local and state government, the Hausa-Fulani must rely on high tribal connections in the Federal establishment. These powerful Muslims identify with the Hausa-Fulani as kinsmen on a national level, and at the local level of Jos religion is an easy visual and cultural symbol for tribal affiliations. The killings therefore are a national, and not a local or a religious issue, and one which poses tough questions to Nigeria’s tribal-based politics and society.
The Most Rev. Dr. B. A. Kwashi, Anglican Archbishop of Nigeria stated, following the recent massacre, that: “In Jos we are coming face to face in a confrontation with Satan and the powers of hell.” This could easily be mistaken for part of an extreme anti-Islamic rant, but the Archbishop’s statement on the violence was more pertinent than that. He insists that religion is being used as a justification for a quest for money and power by mobs of unemployed, demoralised, hopeless young men. He believes that they are young men with no religion, no values whatsoever, made so by the hopelessness of their environment. Professor Kibiru Mata of the University of Abuja agrees. The government of Plateau State and the Federal government alike, he says, have failed to appropriate public resources in such a way as to alleviate suffering. He calls the killings “a manifestation of economic alienation”, the actions of a generation with no opportunities.
To understand why and how the Jos massacres happened, we should examine the economic realities of Nigeria today. Though the country is abundant in natural resources and production, is potentially self-sufficient and has a huge and young working population, most of its citizens live in poverty and squalor. Of the nation’s 154 million inhabitants, and of the hundreds of thousands who apply for third-level education, only 35-40,000 are accommodated in the country’s universities. 31% of Nigerians are completely illiterate. Hundreds of billions of dollars are owned by a tiny number of Nigerians and business-savvy foreigners for purposes of speculation and short-term profit, making the material basis for real progress impossible by squandering or looting the country’s potential wealth. The continuing deregulation of the oil sector is taking even more of the country’s natural wealth out of the hands of its citizens.
In this context, it is little surprise that some of the country’s tens of millions who are permanently unemployed, and the many more who are on precarious livelihoods, might resort to violence to defend what they see as their tribe’s interests, and by extension their own. The segregated and tense nature of society explains why such a small élite can seize and hold so much of the nation’s wealth with so little outcry. Struggle between rival groups, made up of the powerless and penniless, for political and economic advantage is seen as the only means of advancement. Since community consciousness goes no further than tribe or village, class-consciousness is practically nonexistent. Rival ethnic groups, victims of the same inequality, fight for the scarce resources left to them, encouraged and often given impunity by wealthier and more powerful members of their tribe. This is a battle fought at the cost of lives, most graphically illustrated by the rioting, violence and massacres that have periodically broken out in places like Jos.   
Dozens of suspects have been arrested by the time of writing, some with blood still staining their clothes. Charges have been made against many, heads in authority have metaphorically rolled and security forces are bolstering their presence around Jos. It must be recognised, however, that the occurrence of such hideous atrocities must be a sign of massive systemic and cultural problems. A suppression of the symptoms, assuming even that is achieved, will not address the root problems of inequality, disenchantment and militant ethnic division that have once more brought death and destruction to Jos.

 
Stuck in a European Monetary Funk PDF Print
Written by Iseult McLister   

Greece’s terrible public finances have not just been caused by its budgetary extravagance but credit-rating agencies have also been cited as triggers of its economic misfortune by having unhelpfully downgraded Greek government bonds. France and Germany have called for an investigation into the so-called “naked” trading of sovereign CDSs and some blame has been shifted onto the unprincipled speculators who had bet against bonds, helping to increase borrowing costs. One other problem for Greece has been the lack of a central Eurozone authority for helping out cash-strapped countries. Even worse for the nation, the ECB is going to tighten up its lending rules again after the deceleration of the global recession. The country will find it difficult to borrow if Moody’s Investors Service cuts Greece’s credit rating, meaning its government bonds would no longer be collateral at the central bank. The Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou recently designated €4.8 billion of additional deficit cuts in a bid to convince other European nations and investors he could regain control of the budget. The government aims to reduce its shortfall below the EU’s 3% of GDP limit by 2012. An “EMF” (European Monetary Fund) has been proposed to help deal with Greece’s problems and German Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Schäuble seem serious about the scheme. According to the Financial Times, some have accused them of using the idea to persuade German public opinion and “prepare a short-term fire brigade operation for Greece”. By the time an EMF could be set up, however, it would be irrelevant to Greece. The purpose of the fund now would be to ensure that a repeat of the Greek situation could be prevented in any other European nations in the future. A Greek official said to the FT on 10th March that: “Support from European partners is key in this kind of situation. An institutional format such as an EMF would be an advantage for us or any other small Eurozone country.”
When Schäuble brought up the idea of an EMF, he said it would act as a lender to Eurozone countries that could not raise funds in capital markets. It would not be a “competitor” to the IMF (based in Washington, DC) but it would try to regulate the fiscal policies of negligent member countries. Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank President, hinted that he might support the proposals and some ECB policymakers are supportive of the plans to strengthen the political effectiveness of Europe’s 11-year-old monetary union. The rules governing the operation of the single currency proscribe a bailout for a country on the brink of insolvency. Mr. Trichet has backed the idea that in extreme cases outside help should be provided. Greece is supportive of the proposal as a potential lifebelt to get it out of its debt crisis. There are no major policies to change the central bank’s workings, however, and Trichet said in a speech at Stanford recently that: “We view the pre-crisis operational framework as a very natural reference point for our phasing-out process.” The ECB has “relatively little reason to change fundamentally what has served our monetary policy well, both in normal and crisis times”. He also said that “we do not wish to breed dependency” and therefore “...a delayed exit from extraordinary liquidity support would distort market behaviour and misallocate credit”.
The European Commission has been using powers recently instated by the Lisbon treaty to establish more “budgetary surveillance” on the 16 participatory countries. More economic policy co-ordination between the nations is seen as an essential tactic in preventing a repeat of the Greek situation and European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Ollie Rehn said that: “The Greek case is a potential turning point for the Eurozone; if Greece fails and we fail, this will do serious and maybe permanent damage to the credibility of the European Union. The euro is not only a monetary arrangement, but a core political project of the European Union ... In that sense, we are at a crossroads.” A new single currency regime will be unveiled next month by Rehn of “rigorous surveillance of national budgets”. Also Eurostat is to be given new auditing powers over Eurozone member states.
Axel Weber, Bundesbank President, had warned that the proposals would be a distraction from attempts by countries such as Greece to bring their public sector deficits back under control and the French Finance Minister, Christine Lagarde, said that it was not an “absolute priority” for the European Union. The idea would most likely be met with much resistance from elsewhere in Europe if it required changes to European Union treaties and Angela Merkel has acknowledged an EMF could not be set up without changes to the EU, which seems a daunting task. Other policymakers have argued that Europe would be better served by finding ways to work better with the IMF instead of setting up an entirely new institution because the ECB’s big worry is that an undertaking could undermine the effective implementation of the EU’s financial policies. Stephanie Flanders of the BBC believes that the economic problems afflicting the Eurozone PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) are serious and that there are two big issues standing in the way of the liquidity solution. There is the problem, firstly, of diverging European competitiveness. It is essential that countries in trouble, such as Greece, try to restore their competitiveness and this can only be achieved with more balanced growth. Solvency is the other problem and many economists think that the floundering members of the Eurozone are going to come out of the process of restoration with unsustainable levels of public debt. A mechanism to effectively restructure sovereign debt is what is required and according to one American financial expert, Carmen Reinhart, “an organisation that could oversee orderly sovereign defaults in the Eurozone would fill a useful gap in the existing financial architecture...the Eurozone needs a crisis response mechanism for dealing with the likes of Greece.” It also needs “bold new policy initiatives”. This would help Eurozone countries expand, grow, and restore together.

 
The last Year of the Indian Tiger? PDF Print
Written by Alice Stevens   

“It’s not another tiger crisis, it’s the final one,” says Belinda Wright, head of the Wildlife Protection Society of India, in reference to the dwindling population of tigers worldwide. This decline is most serious in India which is home to 40% of the world’s tigers, with 23 tiger reserves in 17 states. Last year was the worst year for tiger deaths since 2002. It seems apparent current measures taken towards preserving the species are ineffectual and that the situation has reached crisis point. Decisions made by the Indian government in the next few years will determine whether the tiger, the National Animal of India and a symbol of strength, intelligence and endurance, will continue to exist in the wild.
At the turn of the last century, there were an estimated 45,000 tigers in India. Due to excessive and extravagant hunting among India’s elite and the destruction of habitat throughout the 20th century, by the time the Wildlife Protection Act was introduced in 1972, the number of tigers in India had dwindled to approximately 1,800. The challenge was a daunting one. However, there was hope for the tiger. The Prime Minister of India, Indira Gandhi launched Project Tiger and forests were set apart where tigers could live under special protection. Numbers started to rise but urbanisation, business exploitation of the forests, tourism and - most seriously - poaching have prevented substantial recovery and now threaten to bring about the extinction of tigers in the Indian wilderness.
Tigers are poached for their body parts; the skins are prized in fashion and their bones are used in Chinese medicines. Poaching is a lucrative business. Tiger pelts can fetch up to $12,500 on the Chinese market. Because of the incentives for poaching, it is imperative that there are strong deterrents against such activity and that the tiger sanctuaries are tightly secured. Unfortunately, this is not the case. According to Dharmendra Khandal, the Field Biologist for Tiger Watch, the authorities are always the last to act and poachers can easily elude the guards. The forest security suffers from inefficiency and complacency; Fateh Singh claims the authorities are too preoccupied with tourism and VIP outings to spend adequate time on protection.
The failure of the authorities to put a stop to poaching is an embarrassment for individual reserves and a blow to the national image. Subsequently, the figures of tigers in India’s reserves are often exaggerated and incidents of poaching are not reported. “They are always saying that the numbers are on the increase, but there is no proper scientific research. They are lying to save their skins. If they have a problem they should declare it. The authorities like only praise,” says Fateh Singh, the founder of Tiger Watch. Furthermore, the figures are distorted by ineffectual and unreliable methods of counting based on pug marks. New camera techniques have been introduced and recent reports place the tiger population in India at 1,411. However, few experts believe this figure and some conservationists have estimated a count as low as 800. 
Clearly, the government lacks the drive and efficiency to protect their tiger population. Luckily there are non-government organisations and groups who have taken it upon themselves to protect tigers and their habitat. One of these groups is Tiger Watch. Tiger Watch is a privately-funded organisation set up 12 years ago to curb the decline of wildlife in the Ranthambhore reserve, one of India’s most popular tiger reserves. Having worked closely with the police to tackle the most serious threat to tiger security in the reserve – poachers from the Moghiya tribe - Tiger Watch has helped the police arrest 47 alleged poachers from the tribe. The association has also worked with the Moghiya tribe, providing education and jobs for the women as well as employing informers in an attempt to change the culture and perception of these tiger-hunting people.
Another active group exists in the Periyar tiger reserve in Kerala, where 76 women have taken protection of the tiger into their own hands. Known as the Vasanta Sena (Green Army), they venture into the forest every day to patrol for poachers. Each woman takes one day off work a week to volunteer. One such woman is Gracycutty. “Here we breathe the best air in the world and we are dedicated to protecting it,” she says. “I think if there is only one tiger left in the world in the end, it will be here.”
Such efforts are admirable but the threat faced by the tiger is too serious to be solved by individual organisations; a complete reform of the system and an active interest on the part of the government are necessary in order to preserve the tiger population. However, the instability of the Indian political climate makes this very difficult. Maoist guerillas or Naxalites, who have been singled out as the greatest threat to Indian security have overrun at least six of the parks. Under these circumstances research and preservation are impossible for the forest department.
So what hope exists for the tiger? Some think a captive breeding system will ensure the continuation of the population but tigers bred in captivity have yet to integrate into the wild. Furthermore, this measure would only work if the tigers’ habitats are sustained. Fateh Singh is hopeful in the tiger’s capacity to endure. However conservationist and tiger expert Aditya Singh is not so sure. He believes that once the connections between the reserves break down, there will be no hope for the tiger. “There are still connections between the reserves, but in five years they won’t be there,” he says. “I think the tigers have five years. They will stay in isolated pockets, but they will have reached an evolutionary dead end.” The issues affecting the tiger reflect larger problems faced by the country.
The tiger is a victim of overpopulation, illiteracy, poverty, inefficiency and insurgency. Solving these issues is essential for the fate of the tiger but also for the Indian nation.

Tiger Facts

All species of panthera tigris are classified as endangered-to-critically endangered.

There are only an estimated 5,000–7,000 tigers in the wild of all subspecies.

There are six sub-species: Amur, Bengal, Indochinese, Malayan, South China and Sumatran.

The other three known sub-species– Bali, Caspian and Javan– became extinct during the course of the twentieth century.

The Amur tiger was almost hunted to extinction in the 1940s, when it was estimated only 40 or so individuals remained in the wild. Today there are an estimated 500.

 
Aung San Suu Kyi appeal goes ahead PDF Print
Alice Stevens investigates the trials and tribulations of Burma’s last beacon of hope. Trapped by a vicious junta military in her own home, how much longer can Aung San Suu Kyi’s suffering continue? Aung San Suu Kyi has spent 14 of the last 20 years as a political prisoner. She has been separated from two sons and, 10 years ago, was unable to see her husband on his deathbed. In 1991, she won the Noble Peace Prize for her heroism. As an opposition leader, she persists as a national figure of hope and an international symbol of peaceful resistance and continues to inspire the people of Myanmar, formerly Burma, in their struggle under the oppressive and corrupt military junta that has ruled the country for five decades. Recent developments in Suu Kyi’s ideological battle with the junta have shown that the regime’s unjust treatment of opposition continues in spite of international pressure. Although the government is holding its first democratic elections in over two decades, the junta has used executive and legal power to prevent Suu Kyi’s involvement. Her house arrest has been an attempt to silence her voice of dissent and the government continues to detain her because of her influence and leadership. In May of last year, Suu Kyi was arrested and charged with breaking the conditions of her house arrest after an incident in which an American man swam over to her lakeside home uninvited and stayed for two nights. John Yettaw, a Mormon, claimed he had been sent by God to warn Suu Kyi of an assassination attempt. Suu Kyi allowed him to stay out of concern for his well being. These bizarre circumstances have angered Suu Kyi’s supporters, but clearly Mr. Yettaw did not intend to cause problems for Suu Kyi. “He does not have a political agenda and meant her absolutely no harm,” his wife, Betty Yettaw, told reporters. The timing was bad. Suu Kyi’s arrest came only two weeks before the expiration of her most recent 6 year sentence, and resulted in an 18 month extension of her house arrest. This latest conviction is widely regarded as a ploy to prevent Suu Kyi’s involvement in the 2010 elections, the first elections to be held in Myanmar since 1990. In 1990, Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), had won an overwhelming majority, but the military junta refused to honour the results. Anxious to ensure her participation in these crucial elections, Suu Kyi had her lawyers appeal to the Supreme Court in November of last year. The court agreed to the appeal, which was held earlier this month. Suu Kyi’s lawyer Nyan Win argued that the extension was unlawful because it was based on provisions from the 1974 constitution that are no longer in effect. It is expected that the court will issue a ruling within the next few weeks. Suu Kyi’s lawyers are hopeful that the Myanmar High Court will overturn the extension. Lawyer Kyi Win said, “We are very optimistic. The law is completely on our side.” However, Aung Thein, who has extensive experience in political cases, disagrees. “Executive power supersedes the Supreme Court,” he told reporters waiting outside the court. Thein’s outlook seems the more realistic one. In the political climate of Myanmar, it seems unlikely that Suu Kyi will be released in time for the elections. Success for the military junta in these coming elections will legitimise their brutal regime and justify continued military authority. Despite assurances that the elections will be “fair and free”, the NLD has drawn attention to provisions in the constitution that ensure continued military control in government. The party has not yet declared whether or not it will participate in elections they consider undemocratic. Suu Kyi’s release could prove vital to rallying opposition to the junta. Supporting Thein’s view is a recent statement by the authorities that Aung San Suu Kyi will be freed in November of this year. According to three witnesses, the Home Minister, Maj Gen Maung Oo, made this assertion to an audience of several hundred in a meeting of local officials on January 21. Suu Kyi’s 18 month extension will expire in November, a month after the elections are predicted to take place. Considering the dominance of executive power and the severity of the regime, it seems likely that the Supreme Court will confirm the government’s assertions. Aung San Suu Kyi has attracted criticism in recent years for her inability to adapt to the political climate of Myanmar. Certain members of NLD have questioned the effectiveness of non-violent protest and international sanctions to bring about change. “If Suu Kyi has a plan to end 20 years of political deadlock, only she knows it,” said an unnamed elder figure. There is further concern that her policy is not only ineffective but detrimental, accelerating Burma’s isolation and leaving it vulnerable to manipulation. While such criticism may be accurate, the blame is unfairly directed at Suu Kyi. Suu Kyi is denied basic rights and a voice to express her resistance. In an oppressive regime and under house arrest, she has little power to change her position. But although Suu Kyi cannot influence or change Burmese politics in any practical manner, her sacrifice and unrelenting struggle against adversity provide her with an enduring power to inspire.
 
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